The latest Holiday Confidence Index for winter 2015 has revealed a cautious mood among consumers falling 2 points to 49 since an all-time high at the same time in winter 2014. Uncertainly is the biggest threat to holiday bookings and has risen to 19% of those surveyed, a 3% rise since summer. However, there has also been some encouraging news with those intending to travel abroad in the coming year remaining stable at 55% and a significant 4% increase in those who have booked their first trip abroad. 46% have booked their first holiday compared to 42% a year ago and over half (52%) intend to travel before the end of 2015. Created by First Rate in association with the Institute of Travel and Tourism, University of Wolverhampton and YouGov, the report is published three times a year. It provides individual measures of holiday intent, planned frequency, duration and associated spending which is combined to produce an overall index of consumer ‘holiday confidence’ for the coming 12 month period.